When both gates close

Each workaround runs through the other problem

Analysed on its own, each chokepoint has an answer. Hormuz has bypass pipelines to terminals outside the Gulf. Bab el-Mandeb has the Cape route.

Put them together and the answers collide. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline moves crude from the eastern fields to Red Sea export terminals, avoiding Hormuz entirely. But a tanker loading at a Red Sea port and heading for Europe still has to pass Bab el-Mandeb, a point trade reporting on the current situation has made directly.

The pipeline that solves one chokepoint delivers you to the other.

What is left when both are constrained

Three routes remain, none adequate alone.

Red Sea then Cape

Load at Yanbu, transit Bab el-Mandeb, round Africa. Only helps if the strait is passable at all.

Gulf of Oman terminals

Fujairah sits outside Hormuz and faces the Indian Ocean directly. Capacity is the binding limit.

Eastward destinations

Cargo bound for Asia never needed the Red Sea, so it faces Hormuz alone rather than both.

Why LNG is the sharpest case

Crude has partial pipeline bypass. LNG has none — the pipelines carry oil, and Qatari gas has no overland route out of the Gulf at all.

For gas, simultaneous disruption is not really a compounding problem. Hormuz alone is already the whole problem; Bab el-Mandeb pressure adds cost to whatever does get out and heads for Europe.

The cost reaches places neither strait touches

Even where cargo keeps moving, war-risk premiums apply on both routes, tonnage is drawn away from other trades to cover longer voyages, and schedule reliability degrades across services that never go near either waterway.

That is the mechanism by which two regional disruptions reach freight rates and consumer prices thousands of miles away.

Common questions

Can Gulf oil still reach Europe if both chokepoints are disrupted?

Some can, by pipeline to Red Sea terminals and then either Suez or the Cape, depending on conditions at Bab el-Mandeb. Volumes are far below normal seaborne flow and costs rise substantially.

Which is worse to lose, Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb?

Hormuz, because it has no sea alternative at all. Bab el-Mandeb disruption makes voyages longer and dearer; Hormuz disruption stops cargo leaving the Gulf.