Going round the Cape

What the detour costs

A ship routing Asia to northern Europe via Suez passes Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the canal. Routing instead around southern Africa adds more than 20 days at sea by figures reported during this disruption.

The cost is not only time. Fuel burn rises with distance, charter days accumulate, and a service running a fixed rotation needs more ships to keep the same frequency. That last effect is what tightens freight markets well beyond the affected route.

Why it works here and not at Hormuz

This is the distinction most coverage blurs. The Cape route is an alternative to the Suez corridor. It is not an alternative to Hormuz.

Cargo loading at a Persian Gulf terminal still has to leave the Gulf, and Hormuz is the only sea exit. Rerouting round Africa happens after that, not instead of it.

The compounding problem

Saudi crude can bypass Hormuz through the East-West pipeline to Red Sea terminals. But a tanker loading at a Red Sea port and sailing for Europe still has to pass Bab el-Mandeb, as trade reporting on the current situation has noted.

So the Hormuz bypass runs into the Bab el-Mandeb problem, and the Bab el-Mandeb workaround runs round Africa. What happens when both are disrupted at once follows from that.

Common questions

Does the Cape route avoid the Strait of Hormuz?

No. It avoids Suez and Bab el-Mandeb. A ship still has to leave the Persian Gulf through Hormuz before any of it applies.

Why do shipping companies still use the Cape route?

Because it is predictable. A longer voyage that can be scheduled is often preferable to a shorter one carrying war-risk premiums and uncertainty.